(Solved):
+ Decision Theory - Decision Making under Uncertainty (Maximin, Maximax, Laplace, Minimax Regret) ...
+ Decision Theory - Decision Making under Uncertainty (Maximin, Maximax, Laplace, Minimax Regret) Problem 4. Fletcher (a realist), Cooper (a pessimist), and Wainwright (an optimist) are joint owners in a manufacturing company. They must decide whether to make Arrows, Barrels, or Wagons. The government is about to issue a travel policy which depends on whether certain treaties are obtained. The policy is expected to affect demand for the products; however it is not possible at this time to assess the probability of these policy "events." The following table provides the profit estimates. Which product would be chosen by Fletcher (realist)? Which product would be favored by Cooper (pessimist)? Which product would be preferred by Wainwright (optimist)? What is the minimax regret solution?
Realist (Laplace): Equal probabilities would be assigned to each state of nature. Since there are three states of nature, probability of each =1/3 Expected monetary value (EMV), Arrows =840000*(1/3)+440000*(1/3)+190000*(1/3) =490000 EMV, Barrels =3